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Estel Space

Mathematical Modeling

Optimization and Simulation

Turning open-ended questions — delivery routes, energy decisions — into models that can be solved and explained.

  • Python
  • Optimization
  • Simulation
Charts of a microgrid’s purchase plan and storage level over one day
Year
2026
Team
Three students
Recognition
First Prize, 18th Huazhong Cup Mathematical Modeling Challenge
Platform
Python

Background

Mathematical modeling asks for a model, a solution and a convincing paper within a few days. In 2026 I worked on two such problems with my teammates: scheduling green urban deliveries for a mixed fuel and electric fleet, and deciding how a community microgrid should buy electricity and use its battery.

Challenge

Both problems were large, constrained and uncertain — and had to be answered clearly.

Scale

2,169 orders across 98 customer points, with capacities, time windows and speeds that change through the day.

Policy

A green zone closes the city centre to fuel vehicles from 8:00 to 16:00.

Change

Orders are added, cancelled or moved while deliveries are already under way.

Uncertainty

Solar output, load and prices fluctuate; buying too little means emergency power at five times the price.

Solution

Break each problem into layers, solve each layer with the right tool, and check the answer from more than one direction.

  1. 01

    Layered routing

    Estimate a lower bound, build the main routes, insert the remaining demand, regroup exactly, then reassign electric vehicles.

  2. 02

    Policy as a constraint

    The green-zone rule becomes a hard constraint; a compliance check reassigns electric vehicles without adding trips.

  3. 03

    Dynamic scheduling

    A general framework of insert, remove and reorder handles four kinds of events in real time while keeping the plan stable.

  4. 04

    Forecast, then decide

    For the microgrid: ridge-regression forecasts with quantile correction, scenario-based linear programming for the day-ahead plan, and dynamic programming for storage, updated as new forecasts arrive.

Microgrid plan, commitment and storage level over a day
Microgrid model: purchase plan against actual net load (top) and battery storage over one day (bottom).
Map of delivery routes from the distribution centre to customer points
Delivery routes from the distribution centre to 98 customer points, by vehicle type.

Technology

Python

Modeling, solving and visualization.

Linear programming

Day-ahead purchase plans under scenarios.

Dynamic programming

Storage control, and independent verification of results.

Heuristic search

Vehicle routing with time windows and a mixed fleet.

Ridge regression

Forecasting load, solar output and prices.

My contribution

  • Team work with two teammates on both problems
  • Formulating models, implementing and testing solvers in Python
  • Writing the papers — assumptions, results and limitations

Reflection

Modeling taught me to make assumptions explicit. A model is only as honest as the simplifications behind it — and a deadline makes you choose them carefully.